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from Hoover Institution
Nonprofit Organization in Stanford, California
Learning From Failure: Formulating A New U.S. Middle East Foreign Policy
A commentator recently complained that President Trump does not have a “Syria strategy” and therefore awful Assad is winning. Countless Op-Ed writers before him likewise commented that President X “did not have a [insert the name of any country from Morocco to India] strategy,” and therefore awful Z was winning. That sort of writing is still today considered honest work by Op-Ed editors, who studiously ignore what happened when US Presidents did have “a strategy”—and not just in 2003 when the awful Saddam Hussein was removed to allow the Iraqi people to advance towards democracy. It was only upon entering the country that the absence of any actual Iraqis was discovered, as opposed to rival Shi’a, Kurdish, and Sunni factions, in none of which the leaders are chosen democratically, thereby making an Iraq-wide democracy impossible twice over, intra-factionally as well as inter-factionally.
Leaving The Middle East?
With the exception of President George H. W. Bush, every U.S. president since the end of the Cold War has promised American retrenchment from the Middle East. They all have failed to make good on their promises. Bush 41 understood the importance of American leadership in stabilizing the post-Cold War world. In a speech at West Point on January 5, 1993, he stated, “In the wake of the Cold War, in a world where we are the only remaining superpower, it is the role of the United States to marshal its moral and material resources to promote a democratic peace. It is our responsibility; it is our opportunity to lead. There is no one else.” Succeeding presidents felt otherwise, at least upon entering office.
Leaving The Middle East: The Fallacy Of A False Dichotomy
In classical logic, the false dichotomy, or false dilemma, is defined as an argument where only two choices are presented yet more exist, or a spectrum of possible choices exists between two extremes. False dilemmas are usually characterized by “either this or that” language but can also be characterized by the omission of choices. This insidious tactic has the appearance of forming a logical argument, but under closer scrutiny it becomes evident that there are more possibilities than the either/or choice that is presented. The dichotomy appears often in national security policy debates surrounding the role of the United States in the Middle East. On the one hand, politicians (and successful Presidential candidates) on both sides of the aisle vowed a policy of retrenchment to end the region's “forever wars” that have been the primary focus of American national security policy for almost two decades at a cost of billions of dollars [$2.4 trillion, actually] and thousands of lives. On the other hand, pragmatists note the difficulties that come with such wishful thinking: America still has enduring vital interests and lasting allies in the region, and efforts to focus elsewhere have brought a resurgence of Islamic extremism, humanitarian disasters, and repeated geopolitical failings. In U.S. Middle East policy, the choice is often perceived as “stay the course” or “cut and run.” The reality is that there exists a continuum of possibilities, a range of engagement options, a spectrum of costs, and an ability to vary them in size, scope, and character in ways appropriate to our national security needs, reassuring and supportive of regional allies and partners, and confounding to potential adversaries.
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from Mises Institute
RIGHT-CENTER BIAS, MIXED
End the Shutdown
The shutdown of the American economy by government decree should end. The lasting and far-reaching harms caused by this authoritarian precedent far outweigh those caused by the COVID-19 virus. The American people—individuals, families, businesses—must decide for themselves how and when to reopen society and return to their daily lives.
How The Fed Sows Social Division and Mistrust
The Federal Reserve’s zero interest rate policy and industry bailouts threaten more than just the fragile economy. The very foundation of the social order risks permanent fracturing under this system of moral hazard.
Why the World Has a Dollar Shortage, Despite Massive Fed Action
How can the Fed launch an “unlimited” monetary stimulus with congress approving a $2 trillion package and the dollar index remain strong? The answer lies in the rising global dollar shortage, and should be a lesson for monetary alchemists around the world. Can the US dollar lose its global reserve position? Sure it can, but not to a country that decides to commit the same monetary follies as the Fed. Most countries are trying to out-inflate the Fed. And that's good for the Fed.
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from The Spokesman-Review
Newspaper in Spokane, Washington
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from The Tyee
Online news magazine in Vancouver, BC
New China Data Undercuts Reassurances by Our Health Officials
Canada must lock down and test far more. Missing virus carriers with no symptoms will cost lives. Dr. Peter Phillips, head of the infectious diseases division of the UBC School of Medicine, is blunt: “Canada’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic is not strong enough. Despite school closures, measures being taken at borders to minimize spread and social distancing efforts — and despite the recent announcement of $82 billion to support the business community and the economy — more effort is urgently needed. New cases doubled over four days before reaching 1,426 on March 22, which was after a week of containment measures.” Dr. Phillips continues: “Canada’s initial lack of a robust border policy or mandated supervised quarantine program for both incoming travellers and contacts of documented cases has impaired our ability to contain the epidemic here. If the main goal of our response is merely to try to flatten the epidemic curve in order to reduce the extent to which hospitals become overwhelmed, we will fail in Canada.”
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New China Data Undercuts Reassurances by Our Health Officials
Canada must lock down and test far more. Missing virus carriers with no symptoms will cost lives. Dr. Peter Phillips, head of the infectious diseases division of the UBC School of Medicine, is blunt: “Canada’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic is not strong enough. Despite school closures, measures being taken at borders to minimize spread and social distancing efforts — and despite the recent announcement of $82 billion to support the business community and the economy — more effort is urgently needed. New cases doubled over four days before reaching 1,426 on March 22, which was after a week of containment measures.” Dr. Phillips continues: “Canada’s initial lack of a robust border policy or mandated supervised quarantine program for both incoming travellers and contacts of documented cases has impaired our ability to contain the epidemic here. If the main goal of our response is merely to try to flatten the epidemic curve in order to reduce the extent to which hospitals become overwhelmed, we will fail in Canada.”
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