Sunday, April 19, 2020

In the news, Saturday, April 4, 2020


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APR 03      INDEX      APR 05
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from FiveThirtyEight

If you follow me on Twitter, you’ll know I’m constantly going on about how the number of COVID-19 cases is not a very useful indicator of anything — unless you also know something about how tests are being conducted. If you’re a regular reader of FiveThirtyEight, you’re probably used to looking at data in sports — where basically everything that happens on a basketball court or a baseball diamond is recorded — or in electoral politics, when polls (in theory, anyway) survey a random sample of the population. COVID-19 statistics, especially the number of reported cases, are not at all like that. The data, at best, is highly incomplete, and often the tip of the iceberg for much larger problems. And data on tests and the number of reported cases is highly nonrandom. In many parts of the world today, health authorities are still trying to triage the situation with a limited number of tests available. Their goal in testing is often to allocate scarce medical care to the patients who most need it — rather than to create a comprehensive dataset for epidemiologists and statisticians to study. ut if you’re not accounting for testing patterns, it can throw your conclusions entirely out of whack. You don’t just run the risk of being a little bit wrong: Your analysis could be off by an order of magnitude. Or even worse, you might be led in the opposite direction of what is actually happening. A country where the case count is increasing because it’s doing more testing, for instance, might actually be getting its epidemic under control. Alternatively, in a country where the reported number of new cases is declining, the situation could actually be getting worse, either because its system is too overwhelmed to do adequate testing or because it’s ramping down on testing for PR reasons. Failure to account for testing strategies can also render comparisons between states and countries meaningless.

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from Great Falls Tribune (Montana)

'... going to work for them' Shelby, Montana teen writes how COVID-19 changed her life
Adria Lamb remembers learning about the coronavirus in one of her health classes when the respiratory illness was still in China. "I had no idea that three months later it would be affecting my life so much," the 17-year-old Shelby High School junior said. Lamb, a certified nurses assistant at Marias Heritage Center, said she called into work sick one day because she had a sore throat and had been "sneezing a bunch."

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from The Guardian (UK)
LEFT-CENTER, HIGH, British daily newspaper published in London UK

How science finally caught up with Trump's playbook – with millions of lives at stake
The president’s failure to heed the warnings about coronavirus and act quickly has set in train a domino effect that now imperils large swathes of the US, On 6 March, a group of epidemiologists at Imperial College London gave the White House coronavirus taskforce a heads-up about the terrifying projections for the disease they were about to publish relating to the US. The Imperial scientists’ findings would have induced paralytic fear in all but the most nonchalant American. They likened Covid-19, which by that point had already extended its tentacles into at least 28 states in the US, to the 1918 influenza pandemic that killed 50 million people around the globe. On the basis of their modelling, they calculated that if nothing was done to halt the spread of the disease, within weeks it would infect 81% of the US population. The virus would ravage the nation, eviscerate its health system and – here came the sting – put 2.2 million Americans into body bags.

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from Huffington Post

Victoria Assigns Parks Staff To Start Growing Food For Residents
Growing season is on the horizon and Canada’s “City of Gardens” is planning for more plants to increase local food security amid the coronavirus pandemic. City councillors in Victoria, B.C. passed a motion Thursday to expand an urban food production program by temporarily reassigning some parks department staff to grow 50,000 to 75,000 seedlings to give to residents in May and June. “These are extraordinary times and they do call for extraordinary measures,” said Mayor Lisa Helps in the council meeting. She referenced city measures taken in the Great Depression when potatoes were grown in Beacon Hill Park for the orphanage and seniors’ homes.

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from KXLY 4 News (ABC Spokane)

Report: Washington may soon run out of COVID-19 testing supplies
Testing supplies may be running out across Washington. A situation report released on April 1 from the State Emergency Operations Center shows there are less than 10 days of testing supplies available in Washington. “With current supplies we can continue processing tests for approximately 9 days at 200 samples per day,” the report states. “The target is to have a two-week supply at 400 samples per day.”

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from The Spokesman-Review
Newspaper in Spokane, Washington

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from The Telegraph (UK)

Science clash: Imperial vs Oxford, and the sex smear that created rival Covid-19 studies
They are heavyweights of the academic world, trading metaphorical punches over the right to proclaim themselves the most influential scientific body in the country. In one corner is Imperial College, with academics such as Professor Neil Ferguson who are able to claim they have the ear of the Government itself. In the other is Oxford University, led by scientist and author Professor Sunetra Gupta. The two groups clashed last month when they produced starkly contrasting studies into the possible course of the coronavirus outbreak, with both papers spawning dramatic headlines. Rivalry began two decades ago when leading lights of Imperial College and Oxford University worked together.

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